Published on June 22, 2021

AHMEDABAD: On Monday, Gujarat recorded 151 new Covid-19 cases in 24 hours, the lowest daily tally since April 15 last year. This was even lower than the beginning of the second wave at 427 cases on March 1 this year. Analysis of the second wave across major states of India reveals that Gujarat recorded one of the steepest falls in daily Covid cases.

According to Covid-19 data aggregator, Gujarat on Monday was placed 12th in cumulative cases and 14th in active cases among Indian states. Analysis of the rise and fall of the cases reveals that from March 1 to April 30 – when Gujarat recorded the peak of highest daily cases at 14,605 – the cases rose 34 times in 60 days. But the fall was steeper, as the next 50 days saw cases fall by 80 times at 185 on June 20.

To put the figure in perspective, India recorded eight times fall in daily cases from its peak till June 20 (from 4.14 lakh on May 6 to 52,978 on June 20) whereas the rise from March 1 to peak was 34 times from 12,270.

In comparison, Maharashtra recorded its peak at 68,631 on April 18. From March 1 cases (6,397), it was 11 times. By June 20, the cases fell seven times at 9,361. Likewise, Kerala – ranking second in cumulative and third in active cases – recorded its peak at 43,529 on May 12. From March 1, it rose 15 times. By June 20, the cases fell by four times, revealed analysis.

In fact, among the top 12 states in terms of cumulative cases in India, Gujarat was fourth behind Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan in peak-to-tail rate. The first three states have recorded more than 100 falls from its peak, reveal analysis.

The second wave for Gujarat was monstrous compared to the post-Diwali surge in Covid cases. Before the peak of the second wave (14,605), the post-Diwali surge had witnessed a high of 1,607 cases on November 27, making the second wave nine times bigger than the first one.

“Need of the hour is to start preparing for the future in terms of beds, oxygen and medicine. We are fortunate to see sudden rise and sudden fall in cases – many states are still witnessing plateau in terms of daily cases. The corresponding deaths have also reduced drastically in Gujarat,” said a city-based epidemiologist. “But we must not for a moment let our guards down. Covid, as we have seen from evidence from across the globe, is cyclic in nature, and our behavior would decide how fast the rise in cases would return.”

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