Published on April 30, 2021
AHMEDABAD: On Thursday, Gujarat crossed 7,000 cumulative deaths of Covid-19 patients, the 10th highest in India.
The state also recorded its daily highest death toll of 180, giving the daily mortality rate of 1.25%. Analysis of the mortality revealed that the last 2,000 deaths were recorded in just 16 days and the last 1,000 in six days – the fastest so far.
To put the figure in perspective, it had taken the state 227 days to reach from 3,000 deaths to 5,000 deaths. Analysis of both these periods also reveal that compared to the last surge in 2020, this time more districts are recording deaths.
Compared to 85% share of Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot districts in 2,000 deaths between 3,000 and 5,000, this time, it’s just 57% — indicating a much higher mortality in other districts with lesser populations.
In fact, the four districts don’t feature in top five districts with highest mortality rate for the period – Morbi with 6% mortality rate tops the list (meaning death of six patients for every 100 patients recorded between April 14 and 29), followed by Dang (4.7%) and Devbhoomi Dwarka (4.4%).
In absolute numbers, Surat recorded the highest mortality at 386, followed by Ahmedabad (381) and Vadodara (196).
“The phenomenon could be seen both ways – in absolute terms, the mortality has gone down for the most populous districts – Ahmedabad’s share in previous 2,000 deaths was 802 or 40% of the state’s share, which is now down to 19% with 381 or half of the previous mortality. But on the other side, smaller districts are recording higher mortality due to a smaller number of cases,” said a city-based epidemiologist. “Cities like Ahmedabad recorded more cases per deaths this time, reducing its mortality rate.”
City-based experts pointed at multiple factors for the sudden shoot up in the mortality of Covid patients. “This time, the lung involvement is much more compared to the last wave. Second, due to the delay in admission, when the patient arrives in the medical setting, he or she is already in need of oxygen support. If they have any pre-existing conditions, survival becomes difficult after they go on ventilator,” said a city-based critical care specialist. “This time, we have also witnessed deaths of younger patients compared to the last wave.”