Published on April 26, 2021

AHMEDABAD: It could well be the fortnight that has changed the course of the pandemic in Gujarat. If one takes the base of the 2011 Census data as an indication of the districts’ and state’s population (6.04 crore), the state had 4 active cases per 10,000 population on April 10 at 22,692.
The number shot to 19 on April 25 as the state’s active cases tally reached 1.15 lakh — recording a five-fold rise.

The districts’ analysis showed that Ahmedabad had 4,583 active cases on April 10, which rose 11 times to 48,555. Tapi recorded an 11-fold rise from 1 active case per 10,000 population to 11 on Sunday.

The share of the four major districts —Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, and Rajkot — in the total active cases was 67% a fortnight ago, which rose to 72% on Sunday. Thus, seven of every 10 active cases are in these four districts, the analysis reveals.

A city-based epidemiologist said that the rise of Covid cases in urban areas is worrisome, but also of concern is the fact that no district is unaffected by the pandemic’s impact. “Districts like Dang and Porbandar were relatively less affected in 2020 with hardly one or two daily cases being reported,” he said. “But this past fortnight witnessed the doubling of active cases in Dang (from 50 to 109) and nearly a 12-fold rise in Porbandar from 17 to 204.”

Did the new variant alone create this tsunami of cases? Experts point to the rise in daily testing and the increase of the RT-PCR share that brought more patients formally into statistics. “On April 10, the state had recorded 5,011 daily cases, which were found from 1.49 lakh tests, giving the test positivity rate (TPR) of 3.4%,” said a public health expert. “On Sunday, the cases reached 14,296, which were found from 1.68 lakh tests, giving the TPR of 8.5%, showing more than doubling of the TPR.”

Another analysis of the cases reveals that the number of active patients in Ahmedabad has already reached half of its total recovered patients. Compared to 86,959 patients recovered so far, the district already has 48,555 active cases, or more than 33% of its total cases is active.

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